New industrial investment threatens to undermine the still growing carbon sinks in the North.
The ability of forests in southern Finland to absorb climate-warming carbon dioxide has been weakened for decades, estimates the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke). In parts of the country, forests are estimated to have become sources of emissions rather than sinks.
Particularly near large factories in south-east Finland, forests have been felled so much that they are unable to absorb as much global warming carbon dioxide as is produced by logging.
According to estimates made by Natural Resources Institute Finland by region, at current harvesting levels only the carbon sequestration capacity of forests in Northern Finland will continue to be strengthened. However, the forest industry has invested heavily in the forests of Northern Finland, which threatens to reduce the ability of the forests of Northern Finland to absorb additional carbon.
According to Luke, Finland’s forests are still a carbon sink, although according to the latest data, the sink is more than half smaller than previously calculated. However, due to the climate goals, the carbon sink should be significantly strengthened when Finland aims to be carbon neutral by 2035.
Several provinces felled beyond sustainable limit
According to Luke’s felling statistics, the capacity of forests for steady growth, regeneration and carbon sequestration has been exceeded in several provinces.
According to the most recent provincial logging data, in 2021 the entire country was quite close to the limit of the so-called largest sustainable logging. The purpose of the limit is, among other things, to secure a steady supply of industrial wood for decades.
In the forest industry concentration of South Karelia, the limit has already been exceeded by more than 20 percent in several years.
The limit is possibly going to be exceeded in the future as well, as the industry’s need for raw materials will remain high in the next few years, according to Luke’s forecasts. One big reason is the decline in wood imports from Russia.
In the neighboring counties, it has not frozen far from South Karelia.
In the ministry, Rantala is partially responsible for the work that monitors the use of forests and reconciles the income needs of industry, forest owners and, for example, the state.
Rantanen Luke’s calculation of the maximum maintainable logging limit is a kind of guideline, on the basis of which forest policy is made and attempts are made to ensure that the amount of logging remains at a sustainable level. Not all forests would then be used by the forest industry, as it were.
The attached graphic shows that a lot of felling has been done throughout southern Finland.
Reduced carbon sequestration capacity
Heavy logging in various parts of southern Finland is also reflected in the carbon sequestration capacity of forests, which is essential for Finland’s climate goals.
According to Luke’s estimate, the current annual industrial logging of just over 70 million cubic meters means that, for example, the carbon sinks of the wooded North Karelia will clearly decrease all the time by 2045.
If the forests were felled a little more, i.e. the amount of the so-called maximum maintainable felling calculated by Luke, the forests of North Karelia would perhaps bind less carbon than the fellings cause by the end of the decade.
Just like in North Karelia, also in other heavily wooded provinces in the south, according to Luke, the carbon sinks are not strengthened by modern logging. The counties with the richest wood resources are, for example, Savo as a whole, Central Finland and Pirkanmaa.
Unlike North Karelia, forests in South Karelia can already be a source of emissions. The size of the source is uncertain because the provincial climate calculations are a few years old and have not yet been updated to reflect the latest forest resource data.
According to Luke’s provincial climate calculations, the size of the carbon sink of Finland’s forests will depend on the forests of Northern Finland in the coming decades. According to an estimate extending to 2045, the carbon sequestration capacity of current felling will improve only in Northern Finland.
Logging has been concentrated in the southern parts of the country in recent years. If the vast forests of northern Finland had been felled, for example, at the same pace as in the south, the forests of Finland could have been a source of emissions in a single year as a whole.
The carbon sinks have already weakened significantly and researchers have estimated that there is too much logging, at least compared to the climate goals. The civil service working group is currently thinking about ways to limit logging with, for example, a carbon dioxide tax.
According to Finland’s goal of carbon neutrality, the carbon sinks of forests should initially double from the current level by 2035. The EU also requires Finland to have larger carbon sinks by 2030.
The limit will be exceeded even more clearly in the future with current logging operations
In his recent felling opportunity report, Luke has assessed what the forest resources will be sufficient for in the coming decades. With the current industrial logging of a good 73 million cubic meters, for example, the availability of wood will weaken, especially in Southeastern Finland.
In South Karelia, Kymenlaakso, Päijät- and Kanta-Hämee, South Savo and Pirkanmaa, the limit of sustainable logging may be exceeded in the next few years even more clearly than now. According to the report, it will be difficult to maintain fellings of the current size in the future.
The situation may also be weaker in the future, as the estimate does not, for example, take into account already observed or possible future weakening of growth and deviations in forest management.
– The situation will not improve if logging levels remain high. Now we are eating capital that should produce wood in the future, says Kari Härkönen, the researcher doing the calculations.
The logging situation in the northern forests is still different
The calculations are technical and larger fellings in individual years have little effect on future felling volumes. If, for example, there is less felling in one year, there are more opportunities for the following years.
– We’re over and by a lot, and it can’t go on forever. It’s just a question of when more intensive logging will be seen as a big decrease in logging opportunities, says Härkönen when he assesses when, for example, the current timber trade in South Karelia can change.
Luke’s logging opportunity estimates also tell why the forest industry is investing in Northern Finland.
– After the wars, the forests in the north that were cut down and regenerated have grown quite well and there are now opportunities for logging there.
According to Härkönen’s assessment, Northern Finland will not resemble Southeastern Finland, at least for a long time. However, the carbon balance is sensitive in the slow-growing pine trees in the north, whose growth, according to Luke, has weakened at least temporarily, possibly due to global warming.
The already announced investments in Kemi and Oulu will potentially increase the need for wood by nearly five million cubic meters annually.
According to Luke’s climate emission calculations, additional investments on the shores of the Red Sea could collapse Finland’s remaining large carbon sinks already at the end of this decade.
According to Luke, the investments that are already under construction can hawk the current sinks in the Oulu and Kainuu regions and also reduce the carbon stocks of Lapland’s forests.
Finland’s current forest sink is currently dependent on three northern provinces, most of which is Lapland.
Protection may be done with a magnifying glass
A kind of other side of the coin about the geographical concentration of the forest industry and the heavy need for wood is that there are few old forests in those areas, especially important for conservation.
In the southeast corner of South Karelia and Kymenlaakso, nature outside of forestry use is currently the least protected in the whole country.
In practice, if the industry’s need for wood supply continues, the average age of the trees will get younger or stay young. Especially those who own forests in the hope of making more money sell their trees at the stage when the growth fades.
A pine tree can become stout and live to be several hundred years old, but the felling usually takes place long before that. Spruce trees can also live much longer than their current general lifespan.
Older trees with their roots are a significant carbon store and an important carbon sink in terms of Finland’s climate goals.
In Hyvärinen’s opinion, Kaakonkulma would be important from a conservation point of view, because the area is characterized by abundant eastern species. Species that have spread to Finland from the east, such as the flying squirrel, are central Finnish species. According to Hyvärinen, the nature in the eastern parts of Finland is also richer in species on average.