Analysis: Salman Rushdie, who survived the stabbing, is in strong position to win the Nobel Prize for literature today, but a surprise is again possible

The Nobel Prize for Literature has been awarded to a female author only 16 times. The Swedish Academy will announce the recipient of the award today at 14:00 Finnish time.

Salman Rushdie stands in the spotlight against a dark background.
Salman Rushdie has lived for more than three decades in danger of death because of the order to kill him.

The Swedish Academy announces the winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature today. There will be another suspense drama, because the world’s most prestigious literary award does not have a public list of candidates, but almost any writer can be chosen.

So it’s no wonder that betting is fierce. Betting offices are rolling in money as people guess which way the Academy’s taste will tilt this time.

The winner of the world’s most prestigious literary prize is selected on literary grounds, but the selection still involves many kinds of tensions. Where in the world does the award fall, is it the turn of a female writer again, which genre has been left out and how do world events affect all of this?

Lots of questions and no right answers. The only thing that is likely – the winner is a surprise.

Only 16 women writers have won the Nobel

This year it could be the turn of a female author to win again. There is plenty of room for correction in the gender bias at the Academy – the numbers speak for themselves: out of 118 winners, only 16 have been women. The number is staggering when you consider the quantity and quality of literature written by women. Of course, the Academy has failed in the gender issue, but still, in the last ten years, a female author has received the award only four times.

In recent years, two female writers from the Caribbean have been strong in the winning speculation.

Condé received the shadow Nobel in 2018. The recognition was given by a jury of Swedish library professionals. The 85-year-old author has also had a long career as a university teacher in the United States.

Jamaica Kincaid
Jamaica Kincaid was born on the island of Antigua in the Caribbean.

These writers of Caribbean origin could strengthen the image that the Academy has a broad worldview. Gurnah’s choice last year did not mean that you could now forget the rest of the world and focus on European literature.

The Academy could even give attention to Africa in two consecutive years. In that case, the strong would have female writers.

Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.
Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie is a prominent feminist writer.

Salman Rushdie and freedom of speech in strong bets

Salman Rushdie i Frack fotograferad från sidan.
Salman Rushdie was stabbed in August and survived just fine.

European authors are always strong

Despite everything, it is still likely that the Academy will give the prize to a European writer again.

Jon Fosse
Jon Fosse’s plays are performed around the world a lot.

It is impossible to follow the Academy’s train of thought, as no precise criteria have been given to the Nobel Prize winner. The only guideline is the words left by Alfred Nobel as a guideline, according to which the award should be given to the author who has \”published the best work representing the idealist direction in the field of literature\”. Thus, the 18-member Academy has a fairly free hand to distribute a prize worth around 950,000 euros.