Finland is in a new situation on the road to reducing emissions. For the first time, the net sink of soil and forests is not helping to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, but causing emissions.
Due to high felling volumes and slowed tree growth, Finland’s land use sector changed from a net sink to a net emission source for the first time last year.
This has a big impact on the whole.
With the disappearance of the net sink, Finland’s net emissions increased last year back to around the 2005 level, 49.8 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent. Net emissions mean the totality of emissions and the sinks that remove them.
In the period 2005–2020, net emissions decreased by 49 percent. The carbon sinks of soil and forests are included in this chapter. So now the same amount was canceled back.
From the point of view of curbing climate change, it is precisely the development of net emissions, i.e. the difference between emissions and removals, that is essential.
Even in 2020, the net sink of the land use sector covered 48 percent of Finland’s emissions (emission trading and burden sharing sectors). Net emissions were then record low; 30.3 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent. The corona pandemic reduced traffic volumes and emissions, lower logging volumes increased the carbon sink.
Now, however, the land use sector is increasing emissions by 2.1 megatons, not eliminating them, based on preliminary information.
The information can be found in the Government’s annual climate report published today. With it, the Government annually reports to the Parliament information on emissions trends, the medium-term climate policy plan, and the implementation of the land use sector’s climate plan towards emission reduction goals.
Last year, total emissions without the land use sector remained almost at the previous year’s level. In 2020, the emissions were 47.8 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent and in 2021, according to quick advance data, 47.7 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent.
The total emissions have been calculated little by little from year to year. Since 2005, total emissions without the land use sector have decreased by an average of two percent per year. In the period 2005–2021, total emissions have decreased by 22.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent, or 32 percent.
Emissions from the emissions trading sector, i.e. industry and energy production, increased from the previous year, but emissions have nevertheless decreased significantly in previous years.
Emissions from the load sharing sector decreased compared to the previous year. It includes, for example, transport, agriculture, separate heating of buildings and waste management. The sector’s emissions have, however, decreased more slowly than emissions from emissions trading.
Based on the audited emission data for 2020, Finland will meet the burden-sharing sector obligation set for the period 2013–2020. In the EU, each country has defined its own country-specific goal for reducing emissions, the burden of which, i.e. the reduction of emissions, is borne by each country itself.
Will Finland achieve carbon neutrality?
Achieving the goal of carbon neutrality in Finland in accordance with the Climate Act requires that net emissions should be no more than zero by 2035.
– The government has now launched an investigation into, among other things, how our forest law currently directs us to cut down. Are we cutting too young trees too early, says the minister.
Ohisalo notes that the government has also increased the appropriations for nature management and is preparing a special land use change fee, which could come into effect in the next government term. Ohisalo says that the goal of carbon neutrality must be adhered to.
– This government has made this big strategic choice that Finland will become carbon neutral. This is also a message that comes from the direction of business life, that you should not stop on this road.
– Finland’s emissions trend is very positive. Our industry in the emissions trade, i.e. the energy industry, has significantly reduced emissions, and the process industry has done the same. In addition, significant investments are coming.
However, the problem is the disappearance of sinks in land use. According to Ollikainen, more clarity is needed on the reasons for the decline in tree growth, but in any case, the matter must be addressed soon.
As concrete measures, he mentions, for example, the avoidance of clear-cutting and restoration projects, stopping deforestation and forest management measures. According to Ollikainen, carbon neutrality in 2035 is still possible.
– This time is short, but we can do a lot in this time. The determination of the government and the future government in these actions will decide everything.
Report: Achieving the goal is possible, but very uncertain
In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, there can be as many emissions as there are sinks. Despite last year’s sink collapse, the annual climate report estimates that in 2033 there would be 21 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent in carbon sinks. In that case, there could be the same amount of emissions, 21 megatons. That is about 70 percent less than in 1990.
According to the scenarios used in the annual climate report, the actions of the emissions trading and burden-sharing sector are sufficient to achieve the emission reduction goals. However, the achievement of the goals is associated with considerable uncertainty, and the scenarios used have not taken into account the increase in energy prices or the development of emissions and sinks in the land use sector.
This year, the pressure to cut down forests has increased due to the end of Russian wood and energy imports and the increase in the production capacity of the forest industry.
According to the report, when looking at emissions development, connections between sectors must be taken into account, which means that emissions development in one sector can affect emissions in another sector. A typical example of this is the electrification of various functions in society. Significant electrification development is underway, for example, in the transport sector, when switching from combustion engine cars to cars equipped with electric motors.
The electric motor does not cause direct emissions, but increases electricity consumption and thus possibly emissions from electricity production. At the same time, the emission caused is transferred from the burden-sharing sector to the emissions trading sector. Correspondingly, there are connections between the emissions trading and burden sharing sectors and the land use sector.
Achieving carbon neutrality requires action in all sectors and ensuring that the progress achieved in one sector is not nullified by the increase in emissions or the reduction of the sink in another sector, the annual climate report states.